SYRACUSE, N.Y. -- Fourth quarter holiday sales are always a big deal for retailers, but this year they'll mean even more.

"I think holiday sales will probably be down below where they were last year," said SU Maxwell School Economist Michael Wasylenko.

Wasylenko says consumers will be cautious because of their high debt burden. But retailers are doing everything they can to prevent that.

"We're going to do our best to try at least have an increase in sales this year," said Fayetteville Target Store Manager Dan Figel.

This Target store has already circulated its toy catalogue and increased its weekly flyer. Figel says so far the demand for traditional holiday items is still there, but he says customers want discounts.

"They come in with the ad, they come in with the catalogue, they come in with their shopping list. They know exactly what items they want and they're going for those items. And they're definitely shopping those ads," said Figel.

Ralph Monforte owns Cazenovia Jewelry. He says holiday sales are his bread and butter.

"Well for the jewelry business, they're as much as forty percent of the whole year, definitely a big part of the profit picture," said Monforte.

Monforte says his buyers are also looking for value. He too has changed his advertising approach and is offering sales.

Wasylenko says retailers have no choice but to get rid of inventory they've already paid for.

"I don't think they're going to be spending as much as they did. They will obviously spend some for the holidays, but I think retailers bringing prices down and putting things on sale is probably a good idea," said Wasylenko.

Wasylenko says he also thinks consumers won't spend as much after Christmas this year as they have in the past.